The Brexit joke

We live in our little garden: as long as it’s green everything is more or less quite good. Right? Or maybe (also) Great Britain’s garden needs someone else to take better care of. Britons are debating whether to stay in or leave the EU at a membership referendum: will their garden be greener or not after leaving? Do we have to worry? Will they leave the EU? In my view the answers to all these questions is no. Anyway the correct phrasing will be: ”Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?”

Wherefore, in spite of current opinion polls, when Britain will start seriously debating the costs and benefits of leaving the EU, will also realize that a Brexit implicate immense economic costs. Follow the money and you’re seldom mistaken when trying to understand what’s going on. The EU, with a GDP of $18,000 bn, is the biggest economy in the world. Britain is highly specialized in services (law, media, architecture, research, accountancy, insurance, asset management, banks, hedge funds, tourism, etc.) and all those service businesses would be forced to transfer their jobs outside, to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin. Or…. Edinburgh (if you know what I mean). In the end a Brexit would even lead to a loss of political sovereignty for Britain. Scotland might join the EU. Let’s not even count goods: 90% of UK’s trade with Europe is in goods. There are so many opinions on this issue, but no concrete alternative to EU membership. There’s only one thing certain in case of a Brexit: uncertainty, the unknown.
Anyway, what’s going on out there, outside our bigger garden? A mix of factors combined has revealed us an entire new world, waking us up (someone is still sleeping). Too many factors, actually: hacking wars, terrorists, ISIS, climate change, cybercriminals, economies kept alive with a wash of easy money, richer getting richer but the middle class disappearing, levels of pollution never seen before and so on and on. To summarize it in one concept: 25 percent of us won’t be better off than our parents: this is scaring us because we all want to feel safe, we all want financial security, nobody likes uncertainty. Also because an “increasingly-diminishingly” number of workers will have to pay for migrants’ benefits (the main cause of current EU problems, emotional rather than purely economic, but nevertheless the main), and most don’t consider this right. It’s so easy to be an Eurosceptic, isn’t it?

Luckily I’m a simple man with simple answers: all leaders of 28 members know that the easiest way to lose elections is destroying your own industries. Again…follow the money. Besides there would be the risk of others following the British example breaking up the EU, and most probably the remaining 27 leaders will choose to make Brexit as painful as possible, to discourage similar actions in future. Because in my view an actual Brexit would trigger the disintegration of the EU.
Technological and economic pressures are unprecedented, so to get a decent job requires more and more technical skills, complicating everything. Exceptionally hypocrite and stupid politicians (NO names, please: really not needed) are promising to bring back the golden era…but it’s not that easy. Yet so many of us are buying it. But it’s only when you see the precipice in front, you start braking/breaking and questioning. It’s only before voting you really wonder: what IF?
What’s our effective defence then? Our brain. Nothing else than it, IF we use it properly. Connect it when you read news, to choose a job, to question a politician, to understand what’s the best way to take care of our garden, or…to decide about a possible Brexit. Keep you intelligently informed. Use it not to follow false prophets, whatever they’re promising: stability (of any kind) or anything else. Everlasting prosperity will be achieved only in a far, distant future (we will! I have faith). For the time being it’s a merely religious conception. For the time being British voters will back EU membership. Because they’re intelligent. No jokes please, we are “Europeans”, we are British. My dear friends, let’s wait for Thursday June 23: The People WILL speak (let’s just hope they’re all aware of 1st April 2016 new restrictive rules).
….Always humble,
Angiolino

(What might you need in your life? Please kindly visit: What do you lack?)

Future of Schengen

We “had” a dream… It was a Europe without borders. Has it already gone? Maybe, at least practically. Only the border guards are missing, wherefore there are already other kinds of physical barriers, such as the Hungarian one. Of course a single currency would remain, regardless. But a United Europe is represented only by freedom of movement, not anything else. In principle the dissolution of the Schengen Agreement alone wouldn’t mark the end of EU. Only in principle: as a matter of fact some politicians are already arguing about what could really remain without it, because the direct result would be an enormous increase in costs and reduced productivity, due to the re-erection of national barriers.

Let’s go a little bit further: a truly United Europe never existed. The concept of its founders of an “ever closer union” was never accepted by Eastern Countries. Signed up, but NOT accepted, merely to benefit of the enormous financial aids received back then. And let’s include UK-“Brexit” as well. The refugee crisis is just showing this sad reality to everybody, crystal clear! National interests are emerging. In some cases even regional interests (Catalonia). Fiscal, harsh rules are not accepted anymore, especially by the more vulnerable Countries like Greece. Politicians are realizing that defending EU policy is more and more counter-productive, and adjusting consequently. Nobody wants to lose an election, although the majority of people is in favour of solidarity (but heavily conditioned by politics), particularly in richer countries. In my view refugees will never be re-allocated throughout the EU: we’re sleepwalking, happily so, while blaming each others’. Decisions must be taken by politicians, not by the people. If a wider EU response is failing, Schengen itself is failing.    

Why are there so many politicians talking about Schengen? Because, one way or another, they’re all in search of an easy electoral victory. If you prefer: give “some” people what they want. Moreover: the hallmark of populism is anger, easily applicable to nowadays events. It can be about culture, economics, wars, religions, with such an abundance of issues (real or fictional). In this case might be, or actually absolutely IS, about refugees. It makes noise, gets attention and therefore votes or in absence of elections, popularity.

Does it also make you win? (Just) apparently yes, wherefore we all have hopes and fears, appealing to interests and conceptions pushing against the prevailing status quo. But it has a volatile nature and can be counterproductive as promises simple answers to complex problems. We should all aim to an “ever closer European Union” instead. Populism flourishes in front of presumed imminent ruin at the hands of opportunistic harbingers of malefactors (refugees, racists, Muslims & Jews, polluters…throw in everything & everyone).

But its fundamentals are lacking. It might exist within the realm ranging from easily persuadable people to people accepting even demagogic extremes, deriving from ignorant demagogues (even in another Continent). The notion of truly solving problems is a completely different matter than counting on sheer force of personality, often without contents, fouling the political arena.

Populism is the ultimate improbable beneficiary of a deeply disenchanted public, lasting only if such public is continually reassured the battle of good against evil will never end. Someone hoping to be the future President of The United States perfectly understands all this very, very well.

But the majority of people wants the battle to finish, sooner or later. Because 2 or 3 million refugees over 500 million European people is NOT a real problem, nor difficult to be handled. It’s just a very powerful weapon in the hands of our politicians: it’s only because of them if Schengen will fail. The difficult way out (at least there would be a solution) would be TOTALLY embracing the concept of an “ever closer union”: that’s it.

….Always humble

Angiolino

(What might you need in your life? Please kindly visit: What do you lack?)

Giulio Regeni and Egyptian democracy

He was an Italian student, secretly writing from Egypt for a left-wing Italian newspaper “Il Manifesto”. He was conducting a research into Egypt’s labor movement and was very critical of the Egyptian President, Sisi. Mr. Regeni died because of extensive tortures. Egyptian officials promised cooperation to find Regeni’s killers and a team of Italian/Interpol investigators is joining Egyptians’ ones in order to answer two main questions. Who took him? Why? In my humble view we’ll never know the truth. Strangely enough his death received a very limited coverage on Egyptian (government) television channels. And all that coverage exonerated the police. Italian officials seem very sceptical that Egypt would be willing to find those who killed him, because of the initial declarations by officials that Mr. Regeni died in a car accident. With cigarette burns and many other signs of torture?!....Please! Egypt’s foreign minister, Sameh Shoukry, merely said that the two Countries had agreed to increase cooperation to determine the cause of the death. What does it mean?! Is that all, in light of the exceptional gravity of what happened?!      

Can we call it democracy? I’d like to. I’d need to. I’d hope it is.

But I am so disbelieving. Certainly that Government doesn’t like criticism. A human rights activist and journalist, Hossam Bahgat was “summoned” to Egyptian military intelligence office in Cairo. He‘s a soft-spoken activist, not a radical one. So eventually he was released, but it’s not clear whether he faces charges or not for publishing information that threatens national security. Is it difficult to decide? The detention itself and the prospect that he could be prosecuted in a military tribunal (military) is somewhat disturbing, on its own. Because these “meetings” often lead to the Country’s perverse justice system.

What has Mr. Bahgat published (on Mada Masr)? The story of the prosecution of 26 military officers plotting to overthrow Sisi government.  Twenty-six. Not just a few! This means something.

The founder of Al Masry Al Youm was arrested (no quotation marks here needed) because the newspaper published critical reports about the government. Now Salah Diab is being investigated for possible corruption.

Under the justification of fighting terrorism the detention of civilians in Egypt has become routine. And their prosecution is in military courts, not civilian courts. All forms of dissent have been closely confined, especially well known figures (to amplify the effects) in the human rights community.

Is it really so necessary silencing all dissenters?! Is Egypt's President so weak? Or is it truly a lack of democracy? Activist Mona Seif is warning foreigners to stay away from Egypt until security improves. This shouldn’t happen in a democratic Country.

Meanwhile world leaders are responding with resignation. Peace in the region is far more important. Alliances with Egypt too crucial to fail. So Sisi government is not confronted. America is giving 1,3 billion in military aid each year to Egypt, but its armed forces are committing human rights abuses. The indefinite balance of forces, of powers, of risks. But only civil liberties are paying the price. Is this balance correct, immutable? Egypt DESPERATELY needs international investment: shouldn’t trade, national security and military aid be more conditioned to respect and freedom of expression?

So, can we call it democracy? In the end…absolutely not. Whatever you want to call it: at least I hope it’s justified by other, more impelling reasons.

….Always humble,

Angiolino

(What might you need in your life? Please kindly visit: What do you lack?)

The Chinese crisis

The Chinese economy is slowing down and its government is responding to the recent crisis pumping enough liquidity to ease the panic. An easy solution to a difficult problem. So many people relying on their stocks to constantly grow…how crazy.

A wash of money, buying what is otherwise untradeable. The Bank of China is doing the same thing: freeing up cash for banks to make new loans easier, covering bad loans, weak state-owned enterprises (that could / should fail) and so in the end…covering China’s debts in all its various forms.

Apparently, at the beginning it had stabilized markets but without fixing all the imbalances that led to financial troubles (manifestations of  deeper troubles). And so their stock market is now falling (apart). The point is that people aren’t realizing they’re now trading with free money, consequently free of risks (better: the perception of them), weakly and temporarily.

China is obviously trying to reach a new safe, slower, sustainable growth. An internal growth, less dependent on decreasing exports. This is what its government is claiming, at least. In my humble view they’re hiding something at a deeper level. The problem is that their economy is so big that is slowing the global economy, besides easy money equals sugar rush: massive flood of money has always failed to drive human behaviour. We’re animals with animal spirits (ooppsss, sorry). Meaning: we MUST take/feel risks. Take the risks out of the equation and we’re doomed to fail. As a matter of fact they are.

Why am I so worried? Because I see so many similarities here in Europe, Japan and America as well (translated: basically the whole world). But it's not working: the proof is that Japan is now adopting even negative interest rates. Easy short-term rescue is useless and even dangerous without long-term reforms providing sustainable growth. These reforms are still lacking in China, wherefore, again, they’re looking for an easy solution to a complex series of problems.

But I’m merely a nescient. I must surely be wrong.

I am not an expert, don’t misunderstand me. Rates go up and down. Even before China and I merely, passively (more or less) accept this fact decade after decade.

But I am not a stupid either. So I’ve noticed a few things that I’d like to share with you. Afterwards you’ll decide on your own what’s going on worldwide, not only in China. Banks decisions may (just may) be smart, serious, based on right theories or.…NOT, on right data….or NOT (Chinese date are wrong, they show us what they want). Starting from 2009 Western Countries constantly declared the recovery would have materialized the next year. Then the next year. And so on…

Well, in Europe we’re still waiting! Who’s the expert now?

It appears to me just a game, in reality (Imhv-in my humble view). A political balancing, a sort of reconciliation among many forces of pressure. Careers, Presidents out, future Presidents in, those who makes appointments, who sets budgets, who empowers. Political parties, interest groups, lobbies. Throw in the media, the markets, foreign governments and Countries. Enough?! 

What have you deducted? It’s all but a decision in the interest of The People. Neither in the interest of The Chinese People. Are they realizing this? Are “WE” realizing this? We should stop instead relying on Central Banks and do what’s necessary: reforms. Otherwise it’s going to be the perfect recipe for a global disaster. If it has already started or not is not up to me to decide. I’m just…

…always humble,

Angiolino

(What might you need in your life? Please kindly visit: What do you lack?)