The "Islamic" State

So painful writing about it after Paris. But so necessary, wherefore the Islamic State must not win. When these horrible things happen, we have to speak. Have we failed? I don’t think so, because true Muslims are disgusted by recent mass shootings. Russia’s military intervention in Syria has had little success against ISIS (as I wrote in my previous posts). Their action has been costly, in the bombing of a Russian jetliner, in the indignation of Sunni groups (not surprisingly because in Russia there’s a large population of Sunni) and many nations against Putin’s policy which is supporting Assad (a Shiite) alliance with Iran. I predicted this in my post “Messy Syria”: this confusion is merely the beginning, wait and see if I’m wrong.

There’s only one positive thing: ISIS is now the common enemy, of everybody, literally. On this basis new negotiations can be discussed among otherwise enemy nations. Moreover, Putin might decide it’s better to find a face-saving transition for Assad now than later, without playing this conflict out on the battlefield with disastrous consequences.

America, on its side, is certainly not laughing: after having spent a trillion dollars to build the new Iraqi army, has to rely on 25,000 Kurdish fighters to defeat ISIS. In my view Syria will be partitioned after the Assad regime, as Iraq should be, but that’s another story. If Kerry’s diplomacy fails Assad will control part of the territory, various rebel groups will control the rest, together with ISIS. As I have tweeted so, so many times the fallen of Saddam Hussein’s regim created the basis of the Islamic State, but we’re where we are NOW: Iraq and Syria are full of angry people who hated dictators before and are looking for their political, cultural, religious definition now. AND also appalled by ISIS. Furthermore, they’re tribes, not real nations. It’s not difficult to understand how ISIS is thriving on this fertile messy ground.

I want to finish this post with a simple thought: we cry for Paris. Rightly so. Did you do the same for Beirut three days ago? Because if you didn’t, you are not getting what’s going on.

….Always humble,

Angiolino